Measures banking risk. Rising = fear between banks (2008-level panic if > 2%).
Weekly market stress reading. > 1 = significant stress. < 0 = calm markets.
Shows junk bond risk. Sharp rise = liquidity concern in credit markets.
Negative = inverted curve. Strongest recession predictor since 1960s.
Lagging but critical. Rising over 4.5% is a typical recession red flag.
Weekly layoffs. Spikes upward = employers cutting fast.
The headline number. > 5% = inflationary pressure for Fed tightening.
Fed's preferred measure. Persistent > 2% = inflation not under control.
Market expectation of inflation. > 2.5% = long-term inflation worries.
Cash parked at the Fed. High = tightening. Falling = liquidity returning.
High = easing. Falling rapidly = QT and system tightening.
Dropping M2 = liquidity drain. Often leads economic contraction.